Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs has projected that India is on track to become the world's second-largest economy, surpassing the United States, within the next quarter-century. Speaking in an interview, Sachs, a professor at Columbia University, emphasized a decisive shift in the global economic center of gravity towards Asia, with India poised to eventually become the planet's largest economy.
Asia's Economic Resurgence and India's Growth
Sachs elaborated that both India and China are expected to emerge as the two dominant global economies in under 25 years, pushing the U.S. into third place. He highlighted India's current rapid growth rate compared to other major economies, suggesting that closer economic and technological collaboration with China could further accelerate this trajectory.
A significant factor, according to Sachs, is India's demographic advantage. While China's population is experiencing a decline, India's population continues to grow, positioning it to become a significantly more populous nation. This demographic dividend, combined with a strong development path, underpins his optimistic forecast for India.
Rethinking Global Alliances: India's Strategic Choices
Sachs offered a critical perspective on India's current geopolitical alignments. He described India-China relations as the “most important bilateral relationship in the world,” advocating for stronger cooperation despite existing border disputes and historical mistrust. He argued that mutual economic and strategic incentives, including increased trade, investment, and technology partnerships, should drive both nations to improve ties.
Conversely, Sachs sharply criticized India's participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), labeling it an "anti-China play" and asserting that India's involvement is being manipulated by the United States. He urged India to withdraw from the Quad, advocating for bilateral engagement with China rather than allowing U.S. influence to shape its foreign policy.
A Multipolar Global Order
Addressing the broader global landscape, Sachs stressed that the world has already transitioned into a multipolar system, with India recognized as one of its major powers, alongside the United States, Russia, and China. He contended that international institutions and relationships must evolve to reflect this new reality.
“I'm looking at the time just in less than a quarter century now when India and China will be the two largest economies in the world. The United States will be third at that point. At some point in this century, India will be the world's largest economy,” Sachs stated.
Sachs also rejected the notion of China achieving global hegemony, stating, “We're in a world beyond hegemonies now. We're in a world of multiple powers of which India is one and that is the world to make safe through multilateralism.” He suggested that the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) should champion multilateralism rather than positioning itself as an anti-Western bloc. For the upcoming BRICS Summit in 2026, he proposed priorities including ending the war involving Iran, developing a multi-currency payment system to counter unilateral sanctions, and strengthening support for the United Nations.