As Dhanteras 2026 approaches, investors are closely watching the gold and silver markets following a period of significant volatility and a sharp price correction. Precious metals, traditionally seen as safe-haven assets and symbols of prosperity, have experienced record highs followed by steep declines. This has led many to question whether the current downturn presents a strategic entry point for accumulation, especially during a festival synonymous with purchasing bullion.
Market Volatility and Key Influencers
The year leading up to Dhanteras 2026 has been a rollercoaster for gold and silver. Gold soared to nearly $5,600 an ounce internationally in January before undergoing a substantial correction. Silver saw an even steeper fall after climbing above $100 an ounce. This market turbulence has been primarily driven by shifting expectations around US monetary policy, movements in the dollar and bond yields, and broader geopolitical developments.
While Dhanteras traditionally boosts physical demand for gold and silver in Indian households, domestic prices are also heavily influenced by global bullion rates, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and local premiums. Therefore, while festive sentiment plays a role, international macroeconomic factors remain the primary drivers shaping price trajectories.
Analyst Insights: Is Now the Time to Buy?
Several market analysts view the recent correction as a potential opportunity for phased accumulation, albeit with a degree of caution regarding future price swings.
Religare Broking's Outlook
Religare Broking noted a recovery in global investment demand for gold during the third quarter of 2026, indicating renewed investor confidence despite price fluctuations. The brokerage provided specific accumulation ranges:
- Gold: Accumulate between Rs 1,30,000 and Rs 1,35,000, targeting Rs 1,50,000-Rs 1,58,000, with key support at Rs 1,21,000.
- Silver: Accumulate between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 1,63,000, targeting Rs 2,17,000-Rs 2,55,000, with major support at Rs 1,09,000.
SMC Global Securities' Perspective
Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, suggested that gold and silver prices might be nearing a bottom. She highlighted that despite the recent sell-off, both metals maintain positive year-on-year returns, prompting increased physical and ETF buying globally.
- Bharti expects international gold to find support at $4,025-$4,050, potentially rebounding towards $4,175.
- Domestically, she anticipates gold trading between Rs 1,40,000 and Rs 1,45,000.
- Over the past decade, gold has delivered annualized returns of 14-15%, with silver yielding 18-22%.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services' View
Manav Modi, Bullion Analyst at Motilal Oswal, believes a turning point for gold could emerge when real yields stabilize, particularly amid elevated inflation expectations or growing economic uncertainty. Motilal Oswal maintains a 'buy-on-dips' strategy:
- International Gold: Accumulation zone at $3,800-$3,900, with short-term targets of $4,200 and medium-term targets of $4,500-$4,700.
- Domestic Gold: Accumulation zone at Rs 1,35,000, with short-term targets of Rs 1,48,000 and medium-term targets of Rs 1,60,000-Rs 1,68,000.
Strategic Investment Considerations
While gold and silver offer portfolio diversification benefits, their prices remain susceptible to global macroeconomic shifts. Investors considering purchases this Dhanteras are advised to accumulate in phases rather than investing a lump sum. It is crucial to align any investment decisions with individual investment horizons, risk appetite, and overall portfolio allocation. The information provided here is for general knowledge and should not be construed as investment advice; always consult a qualified financial advisor.