Victor Zhikai Gao, Vice President of the Center for China and Globalization, has asserted that India significantly lags behind China in both economic and military development. Speaking in an interview focused on China-India relations, Gao claimed a developmental gap of at least two decades, if not three, separating the two Asian giants.
China's Industrial and Defense Prowess
Gao emphasized China's robust industrial ecosystem and advanced military manufacturing capabilities as key differentiators. He stated that China possesses the capacity to independently produce a full spectrum of military hardware, including aircraft and warships, a capability he believes India currently lacks. "China makes all the military weapons by itself — airplanes, warships, you name it," Gao remarked, adding, "India can never make all the military weapons by itself because it doesn’t have the industrial capabilities and technical expertise to do that."
These comments are likely to ignite debate in India, particularly given New Delhi's aggressive push for defence indigenisation through its "Make in India" initiatives. While India has expanded domestic production of missiles, artillery, aircraft carriers, and drones, China's manufacturing scale and technological advancements, particularly in electronics, shipbuilding, and AI, remain unparalleled globally.
Divergent Economic Trajectories Since 1978
The Chinese official framed his comparison around the contrasting economic paths taken by India and China since the late 1970s. Gao noted that in 1978, both economies were roughly comparable in size. However, he now estimates the Chinese economy to be approximately five times larger than India's.
China's economic transformation, initiated by Deng Xiaoping's reforms, propelled it to become the world's manufacturing hub and the second-largest economy. India, which began its economic liberalization later in the 1990s, has also emerged as a fast-growing major economy, currently ranking as the world's fifth largest. Despite this, Gao's remarks underscore a perceived significant disparity in industrial depth and technological maturity.
Engagement Amidst Tensions
Despite his sharp critique, Gao also advocated for deeper economic engagement between India and China, suggesting that avoiding such cooperation would be a "huge loss for the Indian people." His comments come during a sensitive period for bilateral relations, which deteriorated significantly following the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes. While diplomatic and military talks have aimed to stabilize the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), mistrust persists due to unresolved border disputes and broader strategic competition.
Gao's interview also included controversial geopolitical statements, such as questioning the legality of the McMahon Line and proposing a hypothetical "Victor Gao Line" along the Ganges River, further illustrating the complex and often contentious nature of India-China discourse.