Bharti Airtel Ltd. experienced a significant dip in its stock value on Monday, with shares falling 2% to an intraday low of ₹2,040.15 apiece. This movement resulted in a substantial erosion of ₹20,000 crore from the company's market capitalization, which decreased from ₹13 lakh crore on Sunday to ₹12.80 lakh crore.
The decline comes on the heels of revised target prices from a number of prominent brokerage firms following Bharti Airtel's recent earnings call. Analysts have adjusted their outlooks based on various factors, including average revenue per user (ARPU) growth, subscriber additions, and future tariff hike expectations.
Brokerage Houses Adjust Price Targets
Several financial institutions have updated their projections for Bharti Airtel shares:
- Morgan Stanley reduced its target from ₹2,442 to ₹2,350.
- Jefferies lowered its target to ₹2,380 from ₹2,400.
- JPMorgan, conversely, increased its target to ₹2,290 from ₹2,240.
- MOFSL suggested a target of ₹2,395.
- Emkay maintained a 'REDUCE' rating with a target of ₹2,000.
- ICICI Securities raised its target to ₹2,430 from ₹2,410.
Underlying Factors Influencing Revisions
Brokerage reports highlighted a mix of positive and challenging indicators. Jefferies noted that while India mobile operations missed Q2 estimates due to lower-than-expected ARPU growth, stronger performance in Airtel Business helped offset this. The firm also acknowledged that lumpy capital expenditure impacted free cash flow in Q2, but maintained an optimistic outlook for future free cash flow growth, projecting 13-14% CAGRs in India revenues and EBITDA over FY27-29E.
JPMorgan increased its estimates for wireless ARPU but tempered expectations for subscriber additions. The firm believes that growth in adjacent businesses, deleveraging efforts, and increasing dividends will serve as key catalysts for the stock, alongside potential benefits from 5G premiumization and future tariff hikes.
MOFSL pointed out Bharti Airtel's strong recent performance, noting a 20% return since October 2026. The brokerage emphasized that an industry-wide tariff hike remains the primary near-term trigger for further growth. Additionally, a shift towards usage-linked tariff plans could foster sustainable organic ARPU growth even without headline tariff increases.
Conversely, Emkay expressed concerns that the risk-reward profile for Bharti Airtel is currently unfavorable. The brokerage anticipates a tariff hike in 1QFY28, which remains a crucial monitorable for investors. Emkay broadly maintained its estimates across various business segments.
ICICI Securities adjusted its tariff hike assumption to FY28 and upgraded its estimates for Bharti Airtel's African operations, leading to a projected 3-5% increase in FY27 and FY28 EPS.
“We believe growth in adjacencies, deleveraging and rising dividends should be the key catalysts for the stock outside of better-than-expected 5G premiumization and tariff hikes,” JPMorgan stated in its report.
The varied outlooks reflect a complex environment for telecom stocks, balancing growth opportunities in ARPU and new services against capital expenditure needs and the timing of tariff adjustments.