The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning: global temperatures are set to remain exceptionally high for the remainder of this year and into early 2027. This forecast, released during the COP31 climate summit in Turkey, attributes the anticipated heat to a strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to add an additional 0.1-0.2 degrees Celsius to global averages.
El Niño's Impact on Global Warming
According to the WMO's State of the Climate report, 2026 is on track to be one of the warmest years ever recorded. Data from January to September 2026 already shows global temperatures at 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The agency highlights that the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels is expected to be exceeded in 2026, a mark that was briefly crossed in 2024, the hottest year on record.
"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier," stated WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. "El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase ‘off the charts’."
The El Niño phenomenon, known for influencing temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide, is projected to persist until February. The WMO anticipates temperature anomalies of up to 3.7 degrees Celsius in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, a significant increase from 0.2 degrees Celsius observed in March.
Long-Term Climate Outlook and Ocean Changes
Beyond the immediate forecast, the United Nations projects a potential global temperature rise of 1.8 degrees Celsius this century, even under a best-case scenario requiring substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Should countries only meet their current commitments, a more severe warming of 2.6 degrees Celsius is likely.
The WMO report also underscores accelerating changes in Earth's oceans. Sea levels have risen by an average of 3.9 millimeters annually between 2017 and 2026, a notable increase compared to the 2.4 millimeters recorded between 1993 and 2002. Ocean heat continued its upward trend in 2026, while Arctic sea ice reached its lowest or second-lowest maximum extent in March.
Extreme Weather and Resilience Efforts
Extreme weather events in 2025 significantly impacted renewable energy production globally. Europe experienced above-average solar power generation but faced below-average wind output. Meanwhile, central and southern Africa contended with below-average rainfall, affecting hydropower generation and increasing electricity demand.
In a positive development, the report noted progress in early-warning systems. By 2025, 136 countries had implemented such systems, a substantial increase from 56 a decade prior. This brings the world closer to the UN's goal of achieving universal coverage by the end of 2027, enhancing preparedness for future climate-related challenges.