While Adani Power Ltd. shares have significantly outperformed Tata Power Company Ltd. in 2026, soaring 50 percent year-to-date compared to a modest 4 percent rise for the Tata group firm, recent analyst projections paint a different picture for future returns.
Tata Power: A Potential 10% Gain
According to Bloomberg consensus targets, based on estimates from 21 of 24 analysts, Tata Power could deliver a 10.3 percent upside over the next 12 months. The consensus target price stands at Rs 439.19 per share. This month alone, despite Jefferies' 'Underperform' rating with a Rs 355 target, other major firms like Citi (Mohit Pandey) and JM Financial (Sudhanshu Bansal) have issued 'Buy' recommendations with targets of Rs 525 and Rs 485, respectively. Bernstein's Nikhil Nigania also suggested 'Outperform' with a Rs 443 target, while Morgan Stanley's Girish Acchipalia maintained an 'Equal weight' rating with a Rs 399 target. Overall, Tata Power currently holds 12 'Buy', seven 'Hold', and five 'Sell' calls from analysts.
Adani Power: Upside Appears Capped
For Adani Power, the consensus target based on seven analysts is Rs 223.29, suggesting nil upside potential from current levels. This comes after the stock's robust rally earlier in the year. Jefferies' Lavina Quadros has a 'Buy' rating on Adani Power with a target of Rs 270, while JM Financial's Bansal has a 'Reduce' rating with a target of Rs 202. Bernstein holds an 'Outperform' rating with a Rs 177 target, and Manish A Somaiya of Cantor Fitzgerald is 'Overweight' with a target of Rs 266.
Analyst Preferences and Sector Outlook
JM Financial notably prefers Tata Power, citing expectations for upward revisions in thermal addition targets and a strong focus on storage solutions. The firm's tactical pecking order within its coverage universe places Tata Power highest, followed by Emmvee, BHEL, Adani Green, and Adani Power. This preference is driven by anticipated increased power demand fueled by the seasonally hottest month of June and the ensuing El Niño conditions from July through September 2026.
While Jefferies suggested an 'Underperform' on Tata Power and a 'Buy' on Adani Power, it raised target prices for both. However, Jefferies' top picks in the sector are JSW Energy, Adani Energy, and NTPC, all of which boast significant project pipelines for execution.