A significant El Niño event is currently developing and is projected to intensify into a "very strong event" by early 2027, according to the World Meteorological Organization. This naturally occurring climate pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to bring widespread and severe weather disruptions globally.
What Defines a 'Very Strong' El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which typically occurs every two to seven years. It forms when weakening trade winds allow warm water to accumulate in the eastern Pacific, influencing global weather patterns by raising temperatures and altering rainfall. The severity of an El Niño event is classified by the temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific:
- Weak El Niño: 0.5°C above normal
- Moderate El Niño: 1.0°C above normal
- Strong El Niño: 1.5°C above normal
- Very Strong El Niño: 2.0°C or more above normal
Recent data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were 3.05°C above normal this month. This anomaly is the highest recorded for any El Niño since record-keeping began, significantly surpassing the 0.5°C threshold for an El Niño condition and firmly placing the current event in the "very strong" category.
Natural Phenomenon, Climate Change Influence
It is important to note that El Niño is a natural climate pattern and is not directly caused by climate change. However, its impacts can be exacerbated by ongoing global warming. The last strong El Niño, which occurred in 2023-24, combined with climate change to make 2024 the planet's hottest year on record. That period saw devastating events, including disastrous fires in Bolivia and Venezuela, severe flooding in Nepal, Sudan, and Spain, and deadly heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia.
Projected Global Impacts
The developing "very strong" El Niño is anticipated to lead to a range of severe consequences worldwide. The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago has estimated that this event could result in an alarming 451,000 excess deaths by February 2027.
Specific regional impacts are expected:
- Increased Rainfall and Flood Risks: Southern South America and parts of Central Asia are typically prone to heavier rainfall during El Niño, heightening the risk of floods.
- Drought and Agricultural Threats: Regions such as Southern Africa, Central America, and Australia tend to experience drier conditions, posing significant threats to agriculture and hydropower resources.
The humanitarian impact is also a major concern. The UN World Food Programme estimates that nearly 50 million people could face acute hunger by the end of 2027, with Southern Africa and South America identified as some of the most vulnerable regions.
Governments and aid organizations worldwide are preparing for these potential disruptions, emphasizing the need for robust disaster preparedness and humanitarian response strategies to mitigate the severe consequences of this intensifying El Niño.