US President Donald Trump issued a stern warning of further strikes against Iran on Monday, following a fresh exchange of military actions that sent global oil prices soaring. The escalation, now in its sixth month, saw Brent crude settle at $90.49 a barrel, up 2.71%, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 2.83% to $85.76. Brent briefly touched $91.52, its highest mark in days, driven by fears of supply disruptions, particularly in the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Escalating Confrontation and Military Exchanges
The latest round of hostilities began with Iran firing missiles at two US air bases in Jordan. This was a direct response to a US strike on Iran's Larak Island. US Central Command confirmed its forces had targeted two Iranian launchers after Revolutionary Guard units were observed preparing to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the action as a "limited, precise" response to an "imminent threat."
President Trump, while threatening to "hit them hard" and promising a "response," stated that these renewed strikes did not signal a return to full-scale war. He characterized Iran as a "failed nation" with a weakened economy and military, dismissing the notion of using nuclear weapons given Iran's purported military defeat.
Economic Pressure and Diplomatic Overtures
The confrontation has increasingly shifted into an economic standoff, marked by sanctions, blockades, and pressure on oil flows. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Iran was "lashing out" due to the severe economic impact of sanctions. He announced plans for weekly new secondary sanctions, initially targeting Iranian banks, with the aim of compelling Tehran to the negotiating table.
Despite the heightened tensions, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed Tehran's preference for a negotiated settlement. During a regional security meeting in Kyrgyzstan, he conveyed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi that continuing the war was not in the best interest of Iran, the region, or humanity.
Disinformation and Denials
Amidst the real-world exchanges, disinformation also played a role. President Trump had previously posted AI-generated videos on social media purporting to show explosions at Iran's main oil export terminal, Kharg Island. Iran swiftly dismissed these posts as "laughable," confirming that its oil operations continued unimpeded and denying any attack on Kharg Island.
Washington has notably avoided striking Iran's primary oil and gas infrastructure, a move Tehran has warned would provoke devastating attacks on Gulf neighbors. Instead, the US strategy has focused on intensifying secondary sanctions, targeting countries that continue to purchase Iranian oil.