KOLKATA, West Bengal – Following the conclusion of polling in the second and final phase of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Suvendu Adhikari has made a bold prediction, asserting that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will lose her Bhabanipur constituency by a margin exceeding 20,000 votes.
Adhikari's "Ground Exit Poll" Projections
Adhikari, who famously defeated Banerjee in Nandigram in the 2021 elections, shared what he termed his personal "ground exit poll" for the state. He claimed that he would lead in seven of Bhabanipur's eight wards, with Banerjee securing a lead in only one. Furthermore, Adhikari confidently projected that the BJP would win more than 180 seats in the 294-member Assembly, surpassing the majority mark of 148.
The BJP leader also accused Mamata Banerjee of attempting to intimidate central forces and intervene in voting areas with alleged goons, particularly in Gujarati-Marwari dominated zones. He stated, "Mamata Banerjee spent the entire day trying to intimidate the central forces. She attempted to intervene in the Gujarati-Marwari voting area with goons."
Bhabanipur: A High-Stakes Contest
Bhabanipur, considered a political bastion for Banerjee, witnessed a direct and intense contest between the two political rivals. The constituency recorded a voter turnout of 86.51% by 6 PM, a figure significantly higher than the 82% seen in the 2021 Assembly election and the 78% in the subsequent bypoll that allowed Banerjee to re-enter the Assembly after her Nandigram defeat.
Adhikari alleged that despite the high turnout, attempts at fraudulent voting were minimal. "This time, they could only cast 10-12 fake votes, in which 4-5 men wearing burqas cast votes at some booths in Ward 77. We caught them, after which they fled," he claimed.
The constituency, spread across eight wards of the Kolkata Municipal Corporation, is known for its social diversity, encompassing Bengali Hindu, non-Bengali Hindu, and Muslim voters, alongside significant trader and migrant communities.
Conflicting Exit Polls and Anticipation for Results
While Adhikari's personal forecast strongly favors the BJP, other official exit polls released after voting presented a mixed picture. Several surveys projected an edge for the BJP, with Chanakya forecasting 150-160 seats for the BJP and 130-140 for the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Matrize predicted 146-161 for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC, while P-Marq gave the BJP 150-175 seats and the TMC 118-138.
However, some pollsters, including People's Pulse and Janmat, predicted a return for the Trinamool Congress. People's Pulse projected 177-187 seats for the ruling party, and Janmat forecast 195-205 seats.
The final results for the West Bengal Assembly election are scheduled to be declared when votes are counted on May 4, bringing an end to the intense political speculation.