A powerful El Niño event developing across the Pacific Ocean has already broken a significant sea-surface temperature record, months ahead of its anticipated peak. Sanjeev Sanyal, a prominent economist and member of India's Economic Advisory Council, drew attention to the phenomenon, stating on X that "We currently going through the biggest El Niño event ever recorded."
According to a recent report by Science News, the current El Niño achieved an unprecedented daily intensity on September 21. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific soared to 3.08 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average. This surpasses the previous record daily anomaly of 3.02 degrees Celsius, observed during the 2015–16 El Niño event.
Potential to Surpass Historical Records
While the daily temperature anomaly is a new record, scientists emphasize a distinction when comparing overall event strength. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) utilizes a rolling three-month average, rather than a single day's reading, to assess the full strength of an El Niño. Under NOAA's Relative Oceanic Niño Index, the current event has not yet exceeded the intensity of the major 1997–98 El Niño.
However, forecasts strongly suggest that the current record-breaking El Niño could indeed surpass that historical benchmark in the coming months. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also issued warnings, indicating that the ongoing event has the potential to become the strongest El Niño ever recorded. An earlier WMO assessment in September projected that the phenomenon would likely persist into February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.
Global Impacts of a Stronger El Niño
A more intense El Niño typically influences weather patterns across vast regions of the globe. Scientists have already linked the current event to various conditions, including periods of drought in parts of Central America, a weaker monsoon season in India, and shifts in hurricane activity. Drier conditions are also anticipated for northern South America and the Amazon basin during such events.
During the later autumn and winter months, El Niño commonly brings wetter conditions to the southern United States, while simultaneously producing drier and warmer weather across parts of the northern U.S. and Canada. However, researchers caution that an exceptionally strong El Niño does not automatically make every associated weather impact more predictable. Rising global ocean temperatures, driven by broader climate change, can alter some of the historical relationships between El Niño and regional weather patterns, introducing new complexities.