Kerala Assembly Election 2026: UDF Poised for Power Shift
The highly anticipated results for the Kerala Assembly Election 2026 are set to be announced on Monday, May 4. With counting day rapidly approaching, exit polls have offered a strong indication of a potential shift in power, largely favoring the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to unseat the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, which has governed the state for the past decade.
The 2021 Election: LDF's Historic Second Term
In the previous 2021 Kerala Assembly election, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF achieved a historic feat by securing a second consecutive term. The alliance won an impressive 99 out of the state's 140 seats, garnering a significant vote share of 45.28%. This victory marked a rare instance of a ruling front returning to power in Kerala.
Conversely, the UDF managed to secure 41 seats with a vote share of 39.41%. Within the UDF, the Indian National Congress won 22 of the 93 seats it contested, while the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) bagged 15 out of 25. The Kerala Congress secured 2 of its 10 contested seats.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) faced a challenging election in 2021, failing to win any seats despite securing a vote share of 12.48% across the state.
2026 Exit Polls Project a UDF Comeback
For the 2026 elections, exit polls have largely projected a significant advantage for the UDF. Most surveys indicate that the opposition alliance is poised to cross the halfway mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly, potentially returning to power after a ten-year hiatus.
Leading pollsters have offered strong projections for the UDF. Manorama News-CVoter predicted between 82 and 94 seats for the alliance, while Axis My India forecast 83 to 93 seats. Times Now-JVC also placed the UDF comfortably ahead with projections ranging from 72 to 84 seats.
The ruling LDF has been projected to fall behind in the majority of these surveys, with estimates for their seat count ranging from 44 to 73. This suggests a notable decline from their dominant performance in 2021.
Today's Chanakya, however, presented a closer contest, forecasting 60-78 seats for the UDF and 55-73 seats for the LDF. The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a marginal player, with most agencies predicting between zero and 11 seats. Today's Chanakya specifically projected 3-7 seats for the NDA, with an approximate 20% vote share.
What to Expect on Counting Day
Overall, the exit polls strongly suggest that Kerala may be on the brink of a governmental change. While the projections provide a clear direction, the final outcome will only be confirmed on Monday, May 4, when the official votes are counted, bringing an end to the suspense surrounding the Kerala Assembly Election 2026.