The 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan is facing unprecedented pressure after India rejected a ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague and declared the pact to be 'in abeyance'. This development escalates long-standing disagreements over shared river resources, particularly India's construction of hydropower projects that Pakistan claims violate the treaty.
Origins of the Indus Waters Treaty
The dispute over the Indus River system dates back to the 1947 partition of British India, which divided the extensive irrigation network without considering the new national boundaries. In 1948, India briefly withheld water from canals flowing into Pakistan, prompting an international crisis.
With mediation from the World Bank, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960. The agreement allocated the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) for India's unrestricted use, while the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) were primarily for Pakistan. India was permitted 'non-consumptive use' of the western rivers within its territory, primarily for hydropower generation, subject to specific limitations.
Current Tensions and the Hague Ruling
Disagreements over the IWT have intensified in recent years. Pakistan has raised objections to India's construction of hydropower dams, specifically the Kishanganga and Ratle projects, arguing they violate treaty provisions. India, on its part, has sought to renegotiate the agreement since 2023, citing demographic shifts, climate change, and technological advancements not accounted for in the original pact.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled on August 31 that India must comply with the treaty. However, India rejected this ruling, describing the arbitration panel as an 'illegally constituted body'. While international treaty rulings are generally binding, enforcement becomes challenging when a party refuses to comply.
The Indus River System: A Lifeline for Millions
The vast Indus Basin stretches across China, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, sustaining nearly 300 million people. Originating in southwest Tibet, the 3,180-km-long Indus River is fed by melting snow and glaciers from the Hindu Kush, Himalaya, and Karakoram ranges, along with monsoon rains. It flows through Ladakh, then through disputed territory between India and Pakistan, merging with its five main tributaries before emptying into the Arabian Sea.
Pakistan's Critical Dependence
Pakistan's reliance on the Indus River system is profound. An estimated nine out of ten Pakistanis reside within the basin. The river system supports all 21 of the country's hydroelectric plants, generating about a fifth of its electricity. Furthermore, over 90% of Pakistan's crops, including vital wheat, rice, and cotton, depend on these rivers. Agriculture contributes approximately 23% to Pakistan's GDP and employs over 37% of its workforce. With limited storage capacity, continued access to the Indus's flow is crucial for Pakistan's economy and food security.
India's Growing Water Needs
India's dependence on the Indus is concentrated in its northern regions, particularly Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi, which face increasing water shortages. While India possesses other diverse water sources across its geography, it is home to about 17% of the world's population but holds only 4% of global freshwater resources. Projections warn that water demand in India could double the available supply by the end of the decade, making efficient water management and new projects critical.
Implications of the Standoff
While India has not ceased the flow of water to Pakistan, its declaration of the treaty being 'in abeyance' grants New Delhi greater flexibility in developing upstream projects and utilizing more water. India's ambitious target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 further incentivizes increased hydropower development. Pakistan's primary concern is that India could now accelerate projects that significantly alter water flows, potentially impacting its downstream water security.
Experts suggest that India lacks the immediate infrastructure—such as reservoirs, dams, and canals—to completely cut off water to Pakistan. Building such large-scale diversion infrastructure would require a decade or more and significant investment. Any move to block water could also have broader geopolitical repercussions, affecting India's relationships with other riparian states like Nepal, Bangladesh, and China, which has invested heavily in Pakistan's hydroelectric system as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.