In July 2021, just weeks before the Taliban seized Kabul, former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, issued a stark warning: Pakistan would come to regret its support for the Taliban. Five years later, as of August 2026, Haqqani asserts that subsequent events have unequivocally proven his analysis correct, highlighting a significant shift in regional dynamics.
Haqqani's Prescient Analysis
Writing for Foreign Affairs in July 2021, Haqqani argued that Pakistan's long-standing policy of supporting or tolerating the Taliban, often viewed as a strategic asset against India, was a perilous gamble. He predicted that a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan would transform into a significant strategic liability for Islamabad.
"Pakistan got what it wished for - but will come to regret it. A Taliban takeover will leave Pakistan more vulnerable to extremism at home and potentially more isolated on the world stage," Haqqani wrote.
He further cautioned that Pakistan's delicate balancing act with Washington, where it sought to maintain ties while backing the Taliban, would become unsustainable. Haqqani also theorized that once in power, the Taliban might not remain deferential to Pakistan, creating a "nightmare scenario" where Islamabad would be caught between an uncontrollable neighbor and international demands to rein it in.
Deteriorating Relations and Escalating Conflict
Indeed, since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021—a development then-Prime Minister Imran Khan controversially welcomed as "breaking the shackles of slavery"—Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have sharply deteriorated. Islamabad has consistently accused the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of operating from Afghan soil, a charge Kabul has repeatedly denied.
The tensions have manifested in severe border clashes and military actions over the past two years:
- Torkham Crossing Closure (February-March 2025): A major trade route was shut for nearly a month following clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces over an Afghan border outpost, involving mortars and rocket fire.
- Pakistani Airstrikes (October 2025): Pakistan conducted airstrikes inside Afghanistan, targeting areas including Kabul. The Taliban responded with attacks on Pakistani military positions along the border.
- Renewed Airstrikes and "Open War" (February 2026): Pakistan launched another significant round of airstrikes on Afghanistan, hitting Kabul and Kandahar. Afghan forces retaliated, prompting Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif to describe the situation as an "open war" on February 27.
Domestic Fallout and International Isolation
Haqqani's warnings about domestic security have also materialized. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has emboldened Islamist radicals within Pakistan, leading to a surge in violence from the Pakistani Taliban. Any attempt by Islamabad to pressure the Afghan Taliban has, as predicted, resulted in retaliatory attacks inside Pakistan.
Furthermore, the conflict has raised fears of a new refugee crisis, which could further strain Pakistan's already struggling economy. Haqqani's 2021 insights underscore the profound and complex repercussions Pakistan faces from its long-term policy towards its western neighbor.