BRICS' Renewed Strategic Importance for India
The BRICS bloc has experienced a resurgence in relevance, positioning itself as a vital "hedging instrument" for nations like India amidst a turbulent international landscape. According to Happymon Jacob, founder and director of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research (CSDR), current geopolitical shifts have injected new vitality into the grouping. Speaking in an exclusive interview, Jacob highlighted that the circumstances, including a fragmented global order and the potential return of figures like Donald Trump, have prompted non-US and non-China powers to seek collaborative platforms.
While acknowledging BRICS' importance for fostering dialogue and cooperation among like-minded countries, Jacob cautioned against overstating its geopolitical influence. He emphasized that BRICS, despite its renewed energy, does not possess the capacity to fundamentally reshape or reorder the existing international system.
Challenges of Expansion and Cohesion
Jacob previously expressed concerns that rapid expansion could dilute BRICS' effectiveness, a fear he believes holds true today. He argues that an organization that expands too quickly, without clear objectives, risks losing coherence. The current composition, he noted, sometimes fosters an anti-Western sentiment that does not align with India's broader foreign policy interests, which prioritize maintaining strong relationships with the US, Europe, and the Global South, alongside secondary powers like China and Russia.
Therefore, while BRICS retains a degree of salience in an uncertain international system, its expanding membership could ultimately undermine its ability to achieve common goals and maintain relevance.
The Threat of a G2 or G3 World Order
Discussions around a potential G2 (US and China) or G3 (US, China, and Russia) framework raise significant concerns for countries like India. Jacob explained that such a concentrated power structure would severely limit the maneuverability of second-order powers, potentially forcing them into spheres of influence reminiscent of a Cold War era. This tight bipolarity or tripolarity would be a considerable setback for India, which thrives in a multipolar environment or a loosely unipolar system, where American power is significant but not entirely controlling.
Although Jacob believes a strict G2 or G3 is not an immediate prospect, he conceded that the nature of international politics, where material power dictates accommodation, means such a possibility cannot be entirely ruled out. Should it materialize, it would undoubtedly disadvantage India's strategic autonomy.
Limited Role in Global Conflicts
Regarding ongoing major conflicts, such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the Iran-US tensions, Jacob was skeptical about BRICS' capacity to play a significant mediating role. He stated that the bloc lacks the necessary influence over the primary actors involved, asserting that the great powers themselves—the United States and Russia—will ultimately dictate the outcomes. Neither China nor BRICS as an institution is likely to sway these powerful nations toward negotiation or a cessation of hostilities.
Key Areas to Watch at the Summit
Looking ahead to the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, Jacob identified several critical areas to monitor. He will be paying close attention to the language used in the BRICS declarations concerning ongoing international conflicts, particularly how they frame the roles of the US and the West. Additionally, any discussions or pronouncements regarding a common currency or a unified payment mechanism within the bloc will be a key indicator of its future trajectory.