Extreme heat is emerging as a critical threat to employment and economic output across South Asia, with India expected to bear a substantial portion of this burden, according to a recent World Bank report. The escalating temperatures are projected to reduce workers' capacity for outdoor and physically demanding jobs, impacting livelihoods on a massive scale.
Heat's Dual Impact on India's Economy
The World Bank's report, titled 'A Livable Future: A New Climate Reality for South Asian Cities', identifies two primary ways heat affects the economy. Firstly, it directly slows workers, leads to illness, and diminishes earnings. Secondly, it indirectly disrupts essential infrastructure, including electricity, transportation, and buildings, all vital for economic activity.
Already, over 700 million people in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal reside in areas where outdoor heat stress surpasses theoretical coping limits for at least one day annually. Approximately 120 million people in these regions face such conditions for a minimum of one month each year.
Urban Areas Bear the Brunt
Cities across South Asia are experiencing a dramatic increase in temperatures. Urban dwellers currently endure an average of 78 days per year with temperatures exceeding 35°C, a figure second only to the Middle East and North Africa. Projections indicate this number could rise to 126 days annually by the end of the century, positioning South Asia as the world's hottest urban region.
Infrastructure Under Strain
The economic repercussions extend beyond individual workers. During heatwaves, power failures interrupt industrial production, transport disruptions delay workers and supply chains, and overheated buildings impair the functionality of schools and hospitals. The report stresses that infrastructure acts as the conduit through which localized heat exposure transforms into economy-wide disruption, warning that much of South Asia's existing infrastructure was not designed for contemporary climate conditions.
India is already witnessing immense pressure on its infrastructure as temperatures climb. Air-conditioner sales surged by an estimated 34% between 2023 and 2024. Concurrently, electricity demand hit a record 156 billion units in May 2024, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. Analysis cited in the report reveals that at temperatures above 40°C, the frequency of power outages jumps by 20–50%, with outage durations increasing by 15–60%.
The report further highlights intensifying heat exposure in Indian cities. Ahmedabad currently experiences over 200 days of very high heat stress annually. By 2050, Mumbai is projected to reach 227 such days, and New Delhi 180 days, underscoring the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies.