Shares of leading Indian steel manufacturers — Tata Steel Ltd, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), and JSW Steel Ltd — saw their stock prices fall in Monday's trading session. This market reaction followed the announcement of their fourth-quarter (Q4 FY26) financial results, which included mixed performance and revised outlooks from analysts.
Tata Steel's Q4 Performance and Future Outlook
Tata Steel's stock declined by 4.11% to Rs 207.90. The company reported an in-line adjusted EBITDA (standalone) of Rs 9,430 crore for Q4 FY26, marking a 19% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase. Its EBITDA per ton reached Rs 15,245, up Rs 2,155 per ton QoQ, primarily driven by higher steel prices. While profitability in its Netherlands operations decreased, losses in the UK declined. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for Tata Steel rose 20% QoQ to Rs 9,950 crore.
Nuvama Institutional Equities anticipates Tata Steel's Q1 FY27 EBITDA per ton to increase by approximately Rs 2,600 QoQ due to higher prices, though this may be partially offset by increased raw material costs and lower volumes. The brokerage also projects Europe operations could face losses in Q1. Nuvama increased its FY27E/28E EBITDA estimates by 9% and 6% respectively, factoring in higher steel prices, and revised Tata Steel's target price to Rs 209 from Rs 189, maintaining a 'HOLD' rating.
SAIL's Q4 Results and Expansion Plans
SAIL's shares fell 0.65% to Rs 191.10. The company delivered better-than-expected Q4 FY26 results, with an adjusted EBITDA of around Rs 4,400 crore, up 92% QoQ. Its adjusted EBITDA per ton stood at Rs 8,282, a significant increase of Rs 3,817 per ton QoQ, largely attributed to lower raw material costs. Earnings were boosted by higher prices, despite partially offset by increased other expenses.
For Q1 FY27E, Nuvama expects SAIL's EBITDA per ton to rise by approximately Rs 1,000 QoQ, driven by higher steel prices but tempered by increased coal costs and lower volumes. The brokerage highlighted SAIL's ongoing expansion plan, which is projected to increase net debt by 52% over FY26–28E. Nuvama raised its FY27E/28E EBITDA forecasts by 28% and 10% respectively and revised SAIL's target price to Rs 139 from Rs 111, issuing a 'REDUCE' rating.
JSW Steel's Strong Q4 Amidst Capacity Expansion
JSW Steel's stock shed 0.35% to trade at Rs 1,274. The company reported a better-than-expected consolidated adjusted EBITDA of Rs 9,250 crore, a roughly 40% QoQ increase. This performance was fueled by higher steel prices and volume growth, though partially offset by increased raw material costs. JSW Steel's Indian operations alone saw adjusted EBITDA reach Rs 9,110 crore, up approximately 40% QoQ, with adjusted EBITDA per ton increasing to Rs 11,622.
Nuvama forecasts JSW Steel's Q1 FY27E EBITDA per ton to increase by Rs 800–1,000 QoQ, supported by higher steel prices despite anticipated higher costs. JSW Steel plans to add approximately 17 million tons per annum (mtpa) of steel capacity by FY30, requiring an investment of around Rs 1,26,200 crore. Nuvama increased its FY27E/28E EPS estimates by approximately 12% and 18% respectively, factoring in higher margins. The brokerage revised JSW Steel's target price to Rs 1,129 from Rs 1,057, assigning a 'REDUCE' rating.