Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has issued a warning that a full-blown El Nino event may evolve more rapidly and earlier than previously expected. Indications point to the equatorial Pacific Ocean quickly transitioning from neutral conditions to El Nino, driven by sharp warming at both surface and sub-surface levels.
Accelerated El Nino Development
According to Skymet, the faster strengthening of El Nino could heighten the likelihood of a widespread event. Such an event typically brings extreme temperature anomalies globally and significantly raises the risk profile for the Indian monsoon beyond earlier assessments.
The impact on the Indian monsoon is highly dependent on the location of the warming within the Pacific Ocean. A weaker effect on the southwest monsoon is observed if warming occurs farther east. However, the monsoon is more severely affected when El Nino warming concentrates over the Central Pacific, coupled with cooling in the eastern and western Pacific regions.
This year, the El Nino is anticipated to be a basin-wide event, suggesting a broad influence on monsoon conditions not only in India but also in Indonesia and West Africa.
Potential Impact on Indian Monsoon and Regional Weather
While it remains too early to precisely predict the strength of the upcoming El Nino, these events typically reach their peak intensity between October and February. Skymet’s latest model projections indicate an accelerated development, which increases the chances of an adverse impact on the Indian monsoon.
Historically, El Nino has influenced the Indian monsoon in approximately two-thirds of its occurrences. Past events have shown a more severe impact on northern and central India, with southern and north-eastern regions generally experiencing less disruption.
IMD Forecasts and Economic Concerns
In related news, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a slight delay in the arrival of the southwest monsoon in Kerala, now expected two to three days later than the initial May 26 forecast. Conditions are favorable for the monsoon's further advance into parts of the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu in the coming days.
The IMD also anticipates below-normal rainfall for India this year, projecting approximately 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). A below-normal monsoon, coupled with a strengthening El Nino, could fuel concerns over food inflation and agricultural output across the nation.