India faces the critical challenge of reducing its external dependencies on both the United States and China, according to prominent geopolitical analyst Sanjaya Baru. Amid escalating global tensions and supply chain disruptions, Baru emphasizes that India must learn from history and strategically de-risk its economic and strategic ties with these two global powers.
Navigating US Tariff Threats and Economic Links
Baru, who chairs the board of trustees for the Forum for National Security Studies and the Centre for Aerospace & Strategic Studies, articulated his views in an opinion piece for The Indian Express. His remarks gain urgency as the US Congress overwhelmingly voted in favor of the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026, which threatens 100 percent tariffs on Indian goods.
Despite suggestions for a “de-Americanisation” of Indian foreign policy, Baru points out that the US remains an indispensable market for Indian exports of goods and services. The strong people-to-people and business-to-business connections, alongside a significant defense relationship, complicate any complete decoupling, even as trust may have eroded since the Trump presidency. Economic links, he notes, can persist even without complete trust, citing the US-China relationship as an example.
Strategic De-Risking, Not Decoupling
Echoing Washington's own approach to China—de-risking and diversifying rather than outright decoupling—Baru asserts that India has been pursuing a similar strategy across its external dependencies, including defense, energy, trade, and manpower. “The US seeks to de-risk from China. India has to de-risk from both China and the US,” he wrote, highlighting India's unique position.
India's strategy also involves managing the complex dynamics of a declining power (the US) and a rising power (China). While this mirrors historical shifts, such as Britain's decline and America's ascent, Baru stresses that the 21st-century global landscape is different. The US will continue to exert military, technological, and economic dominance. However, other nations like China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, and even the European Union, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries are increasingly asserting their own interests and seeking to de-risk from the US. India, in particular, must navigate de-risking from both major powers, acknowledging that a complete decoupling from either is not feasible.