Country's largest telecom operator, Reliance Jio, is poised to become the primary growth engine for Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) over the fiscal years 2026-2028. According to a report by brokerage Motilal Oswal, digital services, largely driven by Jio, are expected to contribute a significant 80% of RIL’s incremental EBITDA during this period, achieving an 18% reported EBITDA CAGR.
Key Drivers of Jio's Projected Growth
Several factors are anticipated to fuel Jio's robust expansion. These include projected wireless tariff hikes, with a 15% increase built into the second quarter of FY27, along with continued market share gains. Furthermore, the ramp-up of Jio’s home and enterprise offerings is expected to be a substantial contributor to its overall growth trajectory.
The report highlights that Reliance Jio will be filing its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) today for a substantial ₹30,000 crore Initial Public Offering (IPO), signaling further value unlocking for RIL shareholders.
Valuation and Investment Outlook
Motilal Oswal values Reliance Jio's wireless and home broadband segments at an enterprise valuation of ₹11.3 lakh crore (USD 120 billion), based on a DCF implied 11.5x Mar’28E EV/EBITDA. An additional ₹74,000 crore (USD 8 billion) is assigned to other non-mobility offerings under Jio Platforms Ltd (JPL), bringing the total enterprise valuation to ₹12 lakh crore (USD 128 billion).
Factoring in net debt, the equity valuation for JPL stands at ₹10.7 lakh crore (approximately USD 114 billion). After adjusting for a 33.5% minority stake, the attributable equity value for RIL comes to ₹525 per share. The brokerage has reiterated its 'BUY' rating on RIL, maintaining an unchanged target price of ₹1,655.
Broader Triggers for Reliance Industries
Beyond Jio's digital services, Motilal Oswal identifies several other key triggers for RIL's stock performance. These include value unlocking through the impending JPL IPO, the accelerating ramp-up of quick-commerce offerings under Reliance Retail Ltd (RRL), higher spreads in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) business, and optionality from faster growth in FMCG, AI, Datacenter, and New Energy ventures.