Indian equity benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, are anticipated to open with a muted tone on Monday. This comes as GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange showed a marginal increase of 30.20 points, or 0.12 per cent, reaching 24,322.50.
Market participants will be reacting to the latest quarterly business updates from key lenders and companies. Simultaneously, the trajectory of crude oil prices, which have stayed below $72 per barrel, and the progress of the monsoon season will be crucial factors influencing investor sentiment.
Global Market Overview and Key Influences
Indian equities are broadly expected to maintain a gradual upward trend, bolstered by favorable global cues and diminishing concerns surrounding the US interest rate outlook. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, highlighted that ongoing June-quarter business updates are likely to drive stock-specific movements, with close attention also paid to the southwest monsoon.
Asian and US Markets
- GIFT Nifty: Signaled a muted start for the domestic market.
- Asian Shares: Mostly firmer on Monday, though Nikkei tanked over 1% and KOSPI dropped more than 2%. Hang Seng, however, was in positive territory.
- US Stocks: Remained closed on Friday, July 3rd. Major indices ended mixed on Thursday. Investors this week will be seeking clues on potential interest-rate hikes and early signs from the pivotal earnings season to assess the strength of the US market's rally.
Commodity and Currency Markets
Oil prices are offering some relief from inflationary pressures after OPEC+ agreed to further increase output targets from August. Brent crude slipped 0.6 per cent to near four-month lows at $71.70 a barrel, while US crude lost 0.5 per cent to $68.38. In currency markets, the dollar index steadied at 100.880 after a dip last week. Gold saw little movement, trading at $4,177 an ounce.
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, noted that the market continues to benefit from a favorable domestic macroeconomic backdrop, improving earnings visibility, and expectations of a more supportive global liquidity environment. He advised investors to focus on fundamentally strong companies as the earnings season takes center stage.
FII-DII Flows and Market Sentiment
Provisional data from NSE indicates that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers of domestic stocks on Friday, infusing Rs 1,355.33 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers, offloading Rs 1,953.89 crore worth of Indian equities. FPIs have invested Rs 708 crore in Indian equity markets during the first three sessions of July 2026.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, suggested that the period of relentless FPI selling appears to be over. While FPIs have been selling in markets like South Korea and Taiwan where they hold significant profits, this is prompting them to reconsider India despite its relatively weaker earnings. He concluded that it might take some time for FPIs to become sustained buyers in India.
Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX Outlook
The market demonstrated a sharp reversal after finding support, forming a bullish candle on weekly charts and holding a higher bottom formation, which is positive. Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, described the short-term market texture as positive, recommending a 'buy on dips and sell on rallies' strategy for traders.
- Nifty50 Support & Resistance: Key support zones are identified at 24,150/77,300 and 24,000/76,700. Resistance areas are 24,500-24,700/78,400-79,000. A fall below 24,000/76,700 could retest 23,800-23,750/76,100-75,900.
- Sensex Support & Resistance: 77,000–77,100 is an immediate support zone. Sustaining above this level could lead to a move towards 78,400–78,500. A decisive breach below 77,000 may trigger fresh profit booking.
- Nifty and Bank Nifty: Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst at Angel One, suggested adopting a buy-the-dips approach. The 24,180-24,100 zone is immediate support for Nifty, with stronger support at 23,850-23,800. Resistance is seen at 24,400-24,450, followed by 24,550-24,600.
- India VIX: Declined nearly 9 per cent during the week, closing below the 12 mark, signaling easing volatility and a favorable environment for upward momentum, according to Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.
Nifty Bank Outlook
Nifty Bank formed a sizeable bearish candle on the daily chart and has entered the 'Weakening' quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph, indicating fading momentum despite maintaining relative strength. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the RSI continues to move sideways, reinforcing a consolidation phase.
- Nifty Bank Support & Resistance: Immediate resistance is in the 58,400-58,500 zone. A sustainable move above this could extend to 58,900 and then 59,300. Immediate support is placed in the 57,500-57,400 zone.
- Bajaj Broking added that a move above last week's high of 58,400 could open further upside towards 59,200 and 60,000 in the coming weeks. Failure to move above this high could keep the index consolidating within the 57,000–58,400 range. The overall bias remains positive, suggesting that any breather should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks.