Market expert Pradeep Halder has issued a warning to investors, suggesting that Indian equities, particularly the Nifty index, could experience late-session selling pressure. Despite the market's demonstrated resilience amidst recent geopolitical tensions, Halder believes a smooth, one-way rally is unlikely, with near-term consolidation expected to persist.
Short-Term Volatility Expected
Halder notes that while the market has repeatedly shown strength around lower levels, particularly near 23,800 on the Nifty, traders remain cautious. This wariness often leads to a reduction in aggressive positions, especially before weekends, due to global uncertainties. He emphasized that volatility is likely to remain a significant factor in the trading landscape.
For the Nifty, Halder identified 23,800 as a crucial support level that has consistently held. Conversely, the 24,300-24,350 zone acts as an immediate resistance band. This suggests the index may continue to oscillate within this defined range, rather than making a decisive breakout in the immediate future.
Potential for Late-Session Selling Pressure
A specific concern raised by Halder is a familiar Friday pattern where investors trim their exposure to mitigate headline risks from overseas developments. Given ongoing global tensions, traders may prefer to lighten their positions rather than carry short-term bets over the weekend.
According to Halder, selling pressure could intensify later in the trading session if the Nifty sustains below 24,115 on a 15-minute chart. Should this occur, he anticipates the index could drift towards 24,000 and potentially 23,950. For the Bank Nifty, a sustained break below 57,650 could lead to a decline towards 57,250 and even 57,000.
Geopolitics Overrides Positives
One of Halder’s key observations is the market's asymmetrical reaction to news. He pointed out that negative global triggers tend to elicit a stronger response from investors compared to constructive domestic or strategic developments. While positive advancements for India may not significantly boost sentiment, any external shock is taken seriously. This asymmetry, he suggested, is currently shaping market behavior, making it strong enough to avoid a breakdown but not confident enough for a sustained rally.
Constructive Medium-Term Outlook
Despite the short-term caution, Halder draws a clear distinction regarding the medium-term outlook. He expressed a positive view for the next two to three months, indicating that investors should differentiate between short-term index volatility and broader portfolio strategy. While headline-driven swings may keep benchmark indices choppy, Halder's overarching message is that the market structure remains healthy enough to support a stock-specific approach over the coming months.