On June 23, 2026, as the Nifty index approaches its expiry, Kotak Securities' Head of Derivatives Research, Sahaj Agrawal, has outlined key market levels and two strategic recommendations for traders. The broader market sentiment has seen a notable rebound, influenced by a truce between the US and Iran, a drop in crude oil prices, and a recovery in the Indian rupee, collectively shifting the market bias to positive for the current Series.
Despite these positive triggers, persistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), amounting to nearly Rs 63,500 crore in June so far, remains a concern. Agrawal maintains a positive outlook for the Nifty, particularly as long as it sustains above the crucial support level of 23,880. He noted that Nifty recently staged a strong recovery, moving towards the 24,200 mark, where it encountered some resistance.
Nifty's Immediate Outlook and Trading Range
According to Kotak Securities, the ongoing consolidation near 24,200 is perceived as a temporary pause rather than a sign of underlying weakness. For the expiry day, the setup is described as flat-to-positive, with expectations of a gradual and measured advance. Fresh momentum is anticipated only upon a sustained move above 24,200. The immediate trading range for Nifty is projected between 23,880 and 24,200.
On Monday, Nifty50 closed at 24,102.90, marking an increase of 89.80 points (0.37%). The Nifty Bank index also advanced by nearly 250 points (0.43%) to finish at 57,935.60, while the India VIX, a volatility gauge, eased close to one percent to 12.84.
Kotak's Recommended Strategies for Nifty Expiry
Agrawal suggests a 'buy-on-dips' approach near 24,050. A decisive breakout above 24,200 could pave the way for further upward movement. Traders may consider the following strategies, tailored to their capital management and risk appetite:
1. Short Strangle in Nifty (23,900–24,400)
- Action: Deploy a short strangle by simultaneously selling the 23,900 Put and 24,400 Call options.
- Objective: This strategy is designed to benefit from a market that remains range-bound within the specified levels.
- Risk Management: Maintain a strict stop loss if the premium outflow reaches Rs 34.
- Target: Aim to capture the entire premium decay as the target.
2. Buy 24,150 Call Nifty
- Action: Purchase the Nifty 24,150 Call option within the Rs 60–70 price range.
- Support Level: Strong support for this position is identified at 24,050.
- Risk Management: Implement a stop loss at Rs 35.
- Target: Set a target of Rs 125–150 on an upside breakout.
Disclaimer: It is crucial for traders to conduct their own research or consult a financial planner before making any investment decisions. A study by SEBI indicates that over 93% of individual retail traders in the equity Futures & Options (F&O) segment experience net financial losses. This information is provided for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice.