National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco) shares, which have seen a 14% rise so far in 2026, continue to draw positive attention from analysts. Antique Stock Broking has reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating on the stock, projecting a target price of Rs 480. This valuation is based on six times the estimated enterprise value to EBITDA for the first half of fiscal year 2029.
Strong Operational Performance and Future Growth
The brokerage's optimistic outlook stems from a recent meeting with Nalco's management, which highlighted record alumina and aluminium production and sales volumes in FY26. The company also reported its highest-ever first-quarter sales volume in 1QFY27, underscoring its robust operational and cost leadership.
Key factors supporting the 'Buy' recommendation include:
- Firm Aluminium Prices: While current spot LME aluminium prices are slightly lower than the 1QFY27 average, they are 21.2% higher year-on-year and are expected to remain range-bound in FY27.
- Rising Alumina Volumes: Global alumina futures contracts are 10.4% higher than the 1QFY27 average, with management anticipating further recovery in prices.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Efforts such as lower bauxite mining costs, increased captive coal usage, and rationalized employee costs are expected to bolster margins.
Strategic Expansion and Market Outlook
Nalco's strategic expansion plans are also a significant part of the positive forecast. The company's new bauxite mine at Pottangi and a new 1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) alumina refinery are slated to commence operations this year, promising meaningful volume growth. Furthermore, Nalco has inked a technology licensing agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium for its DX+ Ultra aluminium smelting technology, targeting a 0.5 mtpa brownfield aluminium smelter expansion by 2030.
The domestic aluminium market is poised for growth, with projections of a 6.2-7.8% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) until around 2030. This growth is anticipated to be fueled by the Indian government's infrastructure push, particularly in power, and increasing adoption by automobile manufacturers.
Antique Stock Broking stated, "We maintain a BUY rating with a target price of Rs 480, based on a target multiple of 6x 1HFY29E EV/EBITDA," emphasizing the combined impact of additional volumes and ongoing cost-saving initiatives on future profits.
Despite some increases in input costs, analysts believe that firm LME aluminium prices year-on-year and expected stabilization, coupled with recovering alumina prices, will ensure continued profitability for Nalco.