Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Secretary Saurabh Garg has robustly defended India's latest GDP growth estimate of 7.8% for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27 (Q1 FY27). In an exclusive conversation, Garg rejected allegations that official data was manipulated to present an overly strong picture of economic expansion.
Garg emphasized that the 7.8% growth figure is well-corroborated by a range of real-economy indicators. He highlighted strong performance in manufacturing and services PMI readings, alongside significant growth in sectors such as electricity (9%), cement (8%), and steel (8%). Several services segments, including hotels, tourism, and retail and wholesale trade, reportedly grew in the 15-20% range, with private consumption expenditure nearing 8%.
The 'Apples to Apples' Principle
A central point of Garg's argument was the need for consistent data comparison. He explained that changing the base year for GDP calculations is a standard practice globally, necessary to reflect evolving economic structures, statistical methodologies, and the availability of new data sources. India recently revised its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23.
"When you change the base year, obviously, the level of the items and the level of the GDP numbers change. So, whenever if a comparison has to be done, you need to compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges," Garg stated.
He clarified that critics erred by comparing a Q1 figure from the old GDP series with a number from the new series, despite revised historical numbers having been released months earlier.
Addressing the ₹6 Lakh Crore Revision
Garg also addressed concerns regarding a perceived downward revision of the previous year’s Q1 GDP, from approximately ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore, which some argued made the latest growth figure appear stronger. He rejected this contention, pointing out that the ₹80 lakh crore figure was released in February 2026, before the Q1 FY27 estimate of ₹88 lakh crore even existed.
He explained that the change resulted from the base year revision and the incorporation of better data sources, particularly for the informal sector. Under the revised series, Q1 GDP for FY25 stood at about ₹74 lakh crore, followed by ₹80 lakh crore in Q1 FY26, and then ₹88 lakh crore in Q1 FY27, providing a consistent comparison.
Real vs. Nominal Growth and the GDP Deflator
The MoSPI Secretary also shed light on the divergence between nominal and real GDP growth and the role of the GDP deflator. GDP estimates are prepared at both current and constant prices, with the latter stripping out price changes to reflect actual output changes. The statistical system utilizes over 300 different values from various price indices (consumer, wholesale, producer) across agriculture, industry, and services to assess price impacts.
Garg explained that real manufacturing growth could sometimes exceed nominal growth due to input costs rising sharply (e.g., steel, petroleum products) while companies could not fully pass these increases to consumers. This impacts manufacturing value addition at current prices, resulting in a negative deflator.
No Credibility Crisis for Indian Statistics
Garg firmly rejected the notion of a credibility crisis concerning India's official macroeconomic statistics. He affirmed that methodological changes with the new series followed extensive consultations with experts, economists, and international bodies like the IMF and United Nations, ensuring adherence to global best practices.
He highlighted India's robust digital data ecosystem, including GST, UPI, e-Vahan, and the Public Financial Management System, providing exhaustive and increasingly real-time information. Additionally, a statistical field force of around 10,000 people collects data from households and enterprises nationwide. Garg expressed dismay at what he termed "baseless allegations" of data manipulation, given the high-quality statisticians and data sources available.
Jobs and the 'Feel-Good' Factor
Addressing questions about employment not keeping pace with robust headline economic growth, Garg cited the Periodic Labour Force Survey, indicating unemployment rates between 3% and 5%, which have remained broadly stable. He acknowledged that the quality of jobs and the broader "feel-good" sentiment are complex issues, often influenced by global uncertainties such as geopolitical developments, climate change, and technological shifts, rather than solely by economic performance.