Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former US President Donald Trump are expected to convene at the upcoming G7 Summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, scheduled for June 15-17. This meeting would mark their first direct interaction since a high-profile White House visit in February 2025, which aimed to bolster bilateral trade relations.
A History of Shifting Dynamics
The February 2025 meeting saw both leaders express mutual goodwill, with Trump referring to Modi as a "great friend." They also committed to an ambitious goal of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. However, this initial warmth soon encountered diplomatic friction. Tensions arose when India-Pakistan hostilities flared in May, with Trump publicly claiming credit for brokering a ceasefire through trade pressure. India, however, disputed this, with PM Modi asserting that the ceasefire was negotiated directly with Islamabad, pushing back on the US President's narrative.
Subsequent opportunities for a meeting proved elusive. A planned encounter on the sidelines of the G7 in Canada last year was canceled when Trump departed early. India later declined an invitation for PM Modi to stop over in Washington, citing a prior commitment.
Trade Pressures and Diplomatic Standoffs
The period following these events saw a downturn in India-US relations, characterized by significant trade tensions. Washington imposed 25% reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, alongside an additional 25% related to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. Key US officials, including Scott Bessent and Peter Navarro, vocally criticized India's stance, arguing that oil purchases funded Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
Throughout this period, PM Modi maintained a firm position, neither publicly engaging with the pressure nor altering India's course. He notably skipped several international forums, such as events in Sharm El-Sheikh and the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, where a confrontation with Trump might have occurred.
Recent Thaw and Future Prospects
By September, a perceptible shift in the diplomatic atmosphere began to emerge. Trump extended birthday wishes to PM Modi, and trade discussions gained momentum, culminating in a framework agreement by February of this year. Tariffs were subsequently reduced to 18%, and Trump's familiar "friend of mine from India" phrasing reappeared in his public statements.
However, the formalization of a comprehensive trade deal was impeded by unforeseen global events, including the Iran war and a US Supreme Court ruling that impacted global tariffs. The two leaders last spoke on April 17 in a 40-minute phone call, their third of the year, discussing bilateral ties and the Middle East situation. Trump later commented, "I had a very good talk with him and he is a friend of mine from India and he's doing great." The upcoming G7 Summit in France presents a crucial opportunity for Modi and Trump to finally address trade and other pressing bilateral and global issues in person.