India's largest car manufacturer, Maruti Suzuki India, is poised to announce its fourth-quarter earnings today, with market analysts projecting robust growth driven by strong sales of new models and increased export volumes. The company's stock saw a positive close in the previous session, reflecting investor anticipation.
Q4 Financial Projections: Revenue and Profit Soar
Brokerage firms have released their Q4 projections, indicating significant financial improvements for Maruti Suzuki. According to Axis Direct, standalone net profit is expected to climb 8.1% year-over-year to Rs 4,010 crore, up from Rs 3,711 crore in the same period last year. Revenue is forecast to surge by 25.3%, reaching Rs 50,954 crore compared to Rs 40,674 crore previously.
These revenue gains are attributed to an estimated 11.8% year-on-year rise in sales volumes and a 12% increase in average selling prices (ASPs) over the past year. An improved product mix, with Utility Vehicles (UVs) contributing 32.5% to sales in Q4 FY26 (up from 31.6% in Q4 FY25), along with a stronger export mix of 20.4% (compared to 14.1%), and the impact of recent product launches are key drivers.
EBITDA Margins and New Model Impact
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) margins for Maruti Suzuki are also anticipated to expand. Axis Direct expects a 104 basis points year-on-year increase and a 36 basis points quarter-on-quarter rise. This growth is primarily fueled by higher sales of new models, including the "Victorious" and "e-Vitara," alongside increased export volumes.
BNP Paribas India echoes these positive sentiments, forecasting an even higher 27.2% rise in Q4 revenue, reaching Rs 51,727.8 crore. Their projections indicate a substantial 43.3% increase in EBITDA to Rs 6,112.5 crore and a 14% climb in net profit to Rs 4,225.1 crore. BNP Paribas maintains an "outperform" rating on Maruti Suzuki stock, setting a price target of Rs 16,150.
Strategic Capacity Expansion
Historically cautious about production capacity, Maruti Suzuki is now embarking on an aggressive expansion plan. The company aims to boost its capacity by 500,000 units to a total of 3.1 million by FY28. Furthermore, it has commissioned a new greenfield plant designed for an additional 1 million unit capacity, signaling a strong commitment to meeting future demand and sustaining growth.