The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the continued withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from parts of north and central India. This retreat signals a transition into the post-monsoon phase, leading to predominantly dry weather and a return of higher temperatures across vast stretches of the plains.
Regional Weather Outlook
While northern and central India experience a dry spell, weather systems remain active over the southern and northeastern sectors. These regions are anticipated to receive fresh spells of precipitation:
- South India: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are likely to experience isolated thunderstorms, accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph. South Interior Karnataka is also expected to see isolated rainfall.
- Northeast India: Parts of the northeast will continue to receive rainfall and thunderstorms.
The IMD forecasts a further retreat of the monsoon line over the next 24 hours, solidifying the shift towards post-monsoon conditions.
Driest Monsoon in a Decade
The four-month southwest monsoon season concluded with a significant cumulative rainfall deficit, nearly 13% below the long-period average. This shortfall marks the driest monsoon season India has experienced in the past decade, with the country recording 759.4 mm of precipitation against a normal of 868.6 mm.
El Niño's Impact on Rainfall
Experts attribute this considerable deficit primarily to the emergence and intensification of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These conditions severely disrupted rainfall patterns, particularly across key agricultural regions, resulting in prolonged dry spells during critical planting periods.