India's total fertility rate (TFR) has significantly dropped over the past decade, now falling below the critical replacement level. Economist Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, recently highlighted this trend, warning that the country's peak number of live births actually occurred more than two decades ago, in 2001.
According to Sanyal, while population growth continues due to gains in life expectancy, India would have seen population decline start in the 2030s without these longevity improvements. He emphasized that while it's not yet a "crisis," the long-term implications require careful consideration from policymakers.
Declining Fertility Trends Across India
The total fertility rate in India has decreased from 2.3 to 1.9 over the last ten years, moving below the replacement level of 2.1. This national average masks significant regional variations.
- States like Delhi record a TFR of approximately 1.2 births per woman, comparable to developed nations like Finland and close to China's rate.
- Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal show similar low rates, estimated around 1.3.
- Telangana's TFR stands at about 1.5.
Conversely, states such as Rajasthan (2.3), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), and Bihar (2.9) still exhibit higher fertility rates, contributing to the overall demographic momentum.
Global Recognition and Future Projections
The declining trend has garnered international attention, with figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk reacting to the data. Musk noted that among India's most educated populations, the birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.
Sanyal, in collaboration with economist Sayandeb Banerjee, has consistently warned that India's primary demographic challenge is shifting from rapid population growth to managing falling fertility and increasing longevity. Their analysis indicates that annual births in India have decreased from a peak of approximately 29 million in 2001 to an estimated 23 million in 2024.
The economists also pointed out a fundamental assumption made by the UN: that countries with very low TFRs will gradually recover to replacement levels. However, Sanyal and Banerjee noted that "so far, no country with a lower-than-replacement-rate TFR has made a recovery to 2.1."
Demographic Momentum and Policy Challenges
Despite the falling birth rates, India's population is projected to continue growing for some time, driven by demographic momentum and extended life expectancy. Projections suggest the country could reach a population peak of around 1.67 billion by 2055 before a gradual decline commences.
The experiences of nations like China and South Korea demonstrate the immense difficulty in reversing declining fertility trends once they become established. This makes demographic change a critical long-term challenge requiring strategic policy responses from Indian authorities.