Indian equity benchmark indices are poised for a lower opening on Monday, with Gift Nifty futures indicating a substantial dip of 354 points, or 1.47%, to 24,747. This negative sentiment follows the failure of US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, which has sent crude oil prices soaring and heightened global economic concerns.
Brent crude futures surged 8% to $103 a barrel, while the US dollar index held steady at 99.056. The geopolitical developments are expected to shift market sentiment into a 'risk-off' mode, as investors also assess ongoing March quarter earnings reports.
Global Market Reactions and Analyst Views
Asian stock markets broadly trended lower, with South Korea's KOSPI and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropping over a percent, and Japan's Nikkei down nearly a percent. US stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 experiencing slight declines, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a modest gain.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that while market sentiment had shown signs of improvement due to easing geopolitical concerns and broad-based buying, crude oil prices and continued foreign fund outflows would be crucial factors influencing the market. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, added that valuations had become fair after recent corrections but were not yet compelling buys, with FPI buying dependent on the West Asia situation and crude prices.
FPI and DII Activity
Provisional data from NSE revealed that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 672.09 crore on Friday. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also turned buyers, purchasing Indian equities worth Rs 410.05 crore. However, overseas investors have collectively dumped Indian equities worth Rs 48,905 crore in April 2026 so far, indicating a broader cautious stance.
Nifty50 and Sensex Outlook
According to Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, the market has formed a promising reversal pattern and a long bullish candle on weekly charts, suggesting a positive short-term outlook. He advises a 'buy on corrections and sell on rallies' strategy. Key support zones for Nifty are 23,700/76,550 and 23,500/76,000, while resistance levels are at 24,200/78,000 and 24,500/78,800. A sustained move below 23,500/76,000 could make the uptrend vulnerable.
Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, noted that Nifty50 has reclaimed its 21-day EMA at 23,539, signaling a bullish shift. He suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy as long as the index holds above this pivot. Major resistance is at 24,300 (55-day EMA), with a sustained breach potentially leading to a rally towards 24,600.
Nifty Bank Outlook
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, observed that Bank Nifty formed a strong bullish candle. Immediate resistance is in the 56,400-56,500 zone, with a sustainable move above this potentially extending the pullback to 57,000 and then 57,500. On the downside, the 55,400-55,300 zone is expected to act as immediate support.
Bajaj Broking noted that Nifty Bank formed a bullish candlestick pattern on weekly charts but consolidation within the 56,300-54,000 range cannot be ruled out. Immediate support for Nifty Bank is identified at 53,000-54,000, aligning with the Wednesday gap area and the 20-day EMA.
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, advised traders to remain agile, avoid excessive leverage, focus on disciplined risk management, and adopt a hedged strategy with stock-specific opportunities.