Indian equity markets are anticipated to open on a cautious note this Monday, following a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. While the firm US dollar is weighing on emerging currencies like the Indian rupee, crude oil prices hovering around $70-72 a barrel offer some stability.
Global Market Movements and Commodities
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were up marginally by 6.80 points (0.03%) at 24,095.50, suggesting a muted start for domestic trading. US stocks closed slightly lower on Friday, primarily due to declines in AI-related chip stocks and healthcare shares. The Nasdaq dipped 0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09%, and the S&P 500 saw a 0.05% decrease.
Asian markets presented a mixed picture on Monday. While Iran and the US agreed to pause recent hostilities, Nikkei and KOSPI each dropped a percent, while the Hang Seng index inched higher.
Concerns over the interim peace deal pushed oil prices up, with Brent crude futures climbing 0.85% to $72.6 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude rising over 1% to $70.01 a barrel. The strengthening dollar, with its index at 101.33, led to a 0.4% decline in gold prices to $4,072 per ounce.
Expert Outlook and Key Levels
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects Indian equities to trade with a positive bias, provided Nifty sustains above 24,000. He cited firm geopolitical cues, soft crude oil prices, and a strengthening rupee as supportive factors. Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, noted an improved market tone due to crude oil price corrections and selective FII buying.
Nifty50 and Sensex
The Sensex managed to hold above the critical 77,000 mark, indicating a positive near-term undertone despite limited broad-based participation. Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, identified the 77,800-78,000 zone as immediate resistance. A decisive breakout could strengthen bullish momentum, while the 76,200-76,400 zone is expected to act as strong support.
Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted a range-bound pattern, with support near the 50-day SMA or 23,800/76,200, and resistance near 24,200-24,250/77,800-78,000. For positional traders, 24,000/77,000 is an immediate support zone. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, maintains a positive short-term trend as long as Nifty holds above 23,800, potentially moving towards 24,500.
Nifty Bank
Nifty Bank formed a small-body candle, reflecting an inability to sustain higher levels, yet the broader trend remains constructive. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, stated that immediate resistance is in the 58,600-58,700 zone, with a sustainable move above this potentially leading to 59,100 and then 59,500. The immediate support is placed in the 57,700-57,600 zone.
Bajaj Broking Research suggests a positive bias for Nifty Bank, expecting it to gradually head towards 59,200 levels. The daily 14-period RSI supports this positive outlook, rebounding from its nine-period average.
FII-DII Flows
Provisional data from NSE indicates that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks, offloading Rs 383.76 crore on Thursday. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, injecting Rs 5,747.75 crore into Indian equities.
Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, advised, "Given steady global cues, easing crude and a resilient domestic macro backdrop, expect a cautiously positive near-term outlook: range-bound upside with sectoral leadership from financials, tech and select cyclicals, but keep an eye on global risk sentiment and earnings cues for directional conviction."