NEW DELHI – India and China are emerging as the primary drivers of the world's proposed coal mine expansion, a trend that continues despite a global slowdown in coal demand growth and a decline in coal-fired power generation. According to the Global Energy Monitor's Global Coal Mine Tracker Briefing 2026, these two Asian giants are pushing forward with substantial new projects.
China Leads Global Pipeline, India Sees Sharpest Rise
China maintains its position as the largest player in planned global coal mine development, proposing 1,321 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of new capacity. This figure represents more than half of the entire global pipeline and surpasses the combined proposed capacity of all other nations.
However, India recorded the most dramatic increase, nearly doubling its proposed coal mining capacity from 329 Mtpa in 2024 to 638 Mtpa in 2025. This surge accounts for almost the entirety of the annual increase in the global pipeline, while China's proposed capacity remained relatively stable during the same period.
Key Drivers Behind India's Expansion
- Regional Growth: The increase in India's pipeline is significantly linked to its leading coal-producing states, Jharkhand and Odisha, where proposed mine projects have doubled.
- Ambitious Targets: India's Ministry of Coal has set an ambitious target of nearly 1.15 billion tonnes of raw coal production for FY2025-26.
- Energy Needs: This expansion is attributed to growing energy requirements stemming from heatwaves, robust economic growth, and national energy-security concerns. More than 20 new coal mines, with an aggregate capacity exceeding 80 Mtpa, are slated for operationalization.
Concentration Amidst Shifting Global Trends
Coal mine development is becoming increasingly concentrated, with five countries—China, India, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—collectively accounting for nearly 92% of the world's proposed capacity. This totals approximately 2,314 Mtpa out of a global pipeline of 2,521 Mtpa, a rise from their 89% share in 2024.
This concentration occurs even as the broader global coal market shows signs of losing momentum:
- Global coal demand grew by less than 0.5% in 2025 and is projected to plateau through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.
- Coal-fired electricity generation declined by 0.6% in 2025.
- For the first time, wind and solar power together surpassed coal in global electricity generation.
The disconnect is also evident in actual mine development. Only about 113 Mtpa of new coal mining capacity became operational in 2025, marking a decade low and nearly 40% less than the 185 Mtpa added in 2024. Simultaneously, the proposed global coal mine pipeline expanded by nearly 11% to 2,521 Mtpa across 834 projects.
The report highlights a widening divide between global coal demand trends and planned supply, raising concerns about future project economics and the possibility of stranded assets, particularly as around three-quarters of proposed capacity consists of greenfield mines, with India's greenfield share at approximately 80%.
The findings underscore that India and China will likely remain central to the trajectory of the coal industry over the coming decade, despite the overarching global shift towards renewable energy sources.