The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a comprehensive warning for intense monsoon activity across the country, forecasting heavy to extremely heavy rainfall from August 16 to August 22. This extended period of severe weather poses a heightened risk of flooding, waterlogging, and landslides, particularly in eastern, central, and northern India.
Severe Rainfall Expected in Eastern and Central Regions
The immediate concern focuses on Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, where the IMD predicts heavy to very heavy rainfall, with isolated instances of extremely heavy precipitation, on both August 16 and 17. Other states also bracing for significant downpours include Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, which are expected to experience heavy to very heavy rain.
A low to moderate flash-flood risk has also been identified for several watersheds and neighborhoods in Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal. Districts under this alert in Odisha include Angul, Bargarh, Cuttack, Deogarh, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Jharsuguda, Kendrapara, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Puri, and Sambalpur. In Gangetic West Bengal, East Midnapore, Howrah, Jhargram, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, and West Midnapore are at risk.
Monsoon Activity Spreads Northward and Westward
By August 18, the weather system's influence is projected to expand, bringing heavy to very heavy rainfall to isolated places in Arunachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh, Jharkhand, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. Widespread heavy rainfall is also anticipated across Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, and several other northeastern states. Additionally, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal could see heavy rainfall in isolated areas.
Delhi-NCR is forecast for fairly widespread rainfall on August 18, while West Uttar Pradesh expects widespread rain from August 16-17, and East Uttar Pradesh from August 16-22.
Continuing Rainfall Through Mid-August
The heavy rainfall trend continues into August 19, with Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh expecting heavy to very heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall is also likely over Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, parts of the Northeast, and Uttarakhand. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal will also likely experience isolated heavy downpours.
From August 20 to 22, central India remains vulnerable. West Madhya Pradesh is forecast to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on August 20 and 21. Heavy rain will also persist across Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, parts of the Northeast, and Uttarakhand during this period. The broader seven-day outlook indicates fairly widespread to widespread rain continuing in regions like the Northeast, East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh, Konkan and Goa, Kerala, and Coastal Karnataka.
Underlying Weather Systems
The IMD attributes this intense monsoon spell to multiple interacting weather systems. A well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal-North Odisha coasts is expected to move northwestwards and intensify into a depression. This is coupled with a monsoon trough extending from Amritsar through various northern and eastern cities to the low-pressure area, alongside upper-air cyclonic circulations over northwest Uttar Pradesh, southeast Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and the Jammu division. These combined factors are driving the widespread and severe monsoon activity.