The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued critical red and orange alerts across numerous states, signaling an intensification of the southwest monsoon with heavy rainfall expected to persist until July 26. This warning follows a period of significant rainfall deficit earlier in the season, with the IMD now forecasting widespread heavy to very heavy downpours, and isolated instances of extremely heavy rainfall.
Monsoon Revival After Weak Spell
The current strengthening of the monsoon comes after a subdued phase. According to IMD data, India experienced a 51% rainfall deficit compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) during the week of July 9-15. Cumulatively, the country recorded a 23% rainfall deficit between June 1 and July 15. The IMD anticipates that this renewed spell of rain will help mitigate some of the previous shortfalls, particularly in northwest India, which includes regions like Punjab and Haryana.
Immediate Alerts and Warnings
On July 20, the IMD issued immediate "nowcast" warnings valid for a few hours, cautioning about thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds reaching up to 60 kmph, and heavy rainfall exceeding 15 mm per hour. These warnings were specifically for districts across Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh.
Districts Under Red Warning
The highest level of weather risk, a red alert, has been declared for several districts, indicating the potential for severe weather impacts:
- Gujarat: Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman, Navsari, Valsad
- Uttar Pradesh: Hardoi, Unnao
- Punjab: Chandigarh, Fatehgarh Sahib, Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur, Nawanshahr, Pathankot, Rupnagar, SAS Nagar
- Haryana: Ambala, Panchkula
- Himachal Pradesh: Kangra, Sirmaur, Solan, Una
Residents in these areas should prepare for intense thunderstorms, frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy rain that could lead to waterlogging, reduced visibility, and disruptions to road traffic.
Orange Alerts Across Multiple States
An orange warning, indicating a moderate to high risk, has been issued for thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds (40-60 kmph), and moderate rainfall (5-15 mm per hour) across parts of 13 states:
- Meghalaya
- Assam
- Uttar Pradesh
- Maharashtra
- Gujarat
- Chhattisgarh
- Madhya Pradesh
- West Bengal
- Bihar
- Haryana
- Uttarakhand
- Punjab
- Himachal Pradesh
Key districts under this alert include Lucknow, Kanpur Nagar, Prayagraj, Meerut, Surat, Vadodara, Palghar, Raigad, Dehradun, Haridwar, Ludhiana, Patiala, Shimla, and Murshidabad.
Monsoon Outlook Till July 26
The IMD's extended forecast predicts an active monsoon period for large parts of India throughout the coming week:
- July 20-22: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated over Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and adjacent areas of northwest India.
- July 20-26: Widespread rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is expected across east, central, and northeast India.
- July 20-23: Heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa, parts of Maharashtra, and the adjoining west coast.
Throughout this week, vulnerable regions in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand face potential risks of flash floods, landslides, and waterlogging.
Driving Factors and Safety Advisory
The current intense weather pattern is attributed to an active southwest monsoon, bolstered by favorable synoptic conditions that are enhancing moisture transport across northern, eastern, and northeastern India. These conditions are conducive to widespread showers, isolated heavy downpours, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong surface winds.
The IMD has strongly advised residents in all affected districts to remain vigilant and adhere to safety precautions during periods of thunderstorms and heavy rain.