India Braces for Intense Monsoon Activity
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a significant warning for renewed intense monsoon activity across various parts of the country between August 16 and August 22. Forecasts indicate heavy to very heavy rainfall, with isolated instances of extremely heavy precipitation, particularly over eastern, central, and northern regions. This heightened rainfall poses a considerable risk of flooding, waterlogging, landslides, and disruptions to essential road and rail networks.
East and West Under Initial Threat
Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal (August 16-17)
The immediate concern is focused on Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal, where the IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall, including isolated extremely heavy rainfall, for August 16 and 17. Specific districts in Odisha under a low to moderate flash-flood risk include Angul, Bargarh, Cuttack, Deogarh, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Jharsuguda, Kendrapara, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Puri, and Sambalpur. In Gangetic West Bengal, East Midnapore, Howrah, Jhargram, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, and West Midnapore are also on flash-flood alert.
Beyond these states, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are also expected to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall on August 16. The threat extends to Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh, and Jharkhand on August 17.
Rain Spreads Across Northern and Central India
August 18: Delhi-NCR and More
By August 18, the weather system's influence is projected to expand significantly. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated in isolated areas of Arunachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh, Jharkhand, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. Additionally, heavy rainfall is likely over Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, and several northeastern states. Even parts of South India, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal, may experience heavy rainfall.
Delhi-NCR specifically expects fairly widespread rainfall on August 18, while West Uttar Pradesh will see widespread rain from August 16-17, and East Uttar Pradesh from August 16-22.
August 19: Continued Downpour
The intense rainfall is set to persist on August 19, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh. Heavy rainfall is also likely across Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, parts of the Northeast, and Uttarakhand. Southern regions like Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are also forecast to receive heavy rain.
Extended Outlook: Central India Remains Vulnerable
August 20-22: Persistent Rains
The monsoon activity will continue beyond the initial days. On August 20, West Madhya Pradesh is forecast for heavy to very heavy rainfall, with heavy rain also expected over Assam and Meghalaya, Bihar, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, parts of the Northeast, and Uttarakhand. The pattern holds on August 21, with heavy to very heavy rainfall in West Madhya Pradesh, and heavy rain in East Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and parts of the Northeast. By August 22, heavy rainfall is still expected over Assam and Meghalaya, East Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, the Northeast, and Uttarakhand.
The broader seven-day outlook suggests fairly widespread to widespread rainfall will continue across East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh, parts of the Northeast, Konkan and Goa, Kerala, and Coastal Karnataka. In the south, isolated to scattered rain is expected over Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana through August 22, while Kerala and Lakshadweep will see fairly widespread to widespread rainfall until August 20, followed by scattered rain.
Meteorological Factors Driving the Monsoon
The IMD attributes this widespread monsoon activity to several converging weather systems. A well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal-North Odisha coasts is expected to intensify into a depression, moving northwestwards. Simultaneously, the monsoon trough extends from Amritsar and Ludhiana, through Dehradun, Shahjahanpur, Varanasi, Daltonganj, and Jamshedpur, connecting to this low-pressure area. Furthermore, upper-air cyclonic circulations over northwest Uttar Pradesh, southeast Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and the Jammu division are contributing to the intensified rainfall across the country.