The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating an unusually wet start to the pre-monsoon season in May 2026, with rainfall projected to be above normal across the country. The latest outlook suggests that May's rainfall will likely surpass 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for May rainfall, calculated from 1971 to 2020 data, stands at 64.1 mm for both North India and the nation as a whole. This anticipated increase in precipitation could offer a welcome respite from rising temperatures and mitigate early-season heatwave conditions in many areas.
Uneven Distribution and Regional Alerts
Despite the overall positive outlook, the IMD cautions that rainfall distribution will likely be uneven. While large parts of India are set to receive ample showers, specific pockets in east and northeast India, alongside east-central regions, may experience below-normal rainfall. This variability could impact agricultural planning, particularly for crops reliant on early seasonal rains.
In the short term, the weather office has warned of intense weather activity across several regions. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, along with parts of northeast India, are expected to see widespread rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching 40-60 kmph until May 5. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also anticipated in these areas, raising concerns about localized flooding and potential disruptions.
Storm Activity Across Other Regions
Similar stormy conditions are forecast for other parts of the country. The Western Himalayan region, the plains of northwest India, and adjoining central areas are likely to experience isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds between May 3 and May 6. Eastern India and the east coast states are also expected to witness significant storm activity during the same period.
Meteorologists note that while such weather patterns are typical during the transition from spring to the southwest monsoon, the scale and intensity of rainfall this May could be higher than usual. While increased rain may improve soil moisture and short-term water availability, intense, short-duration spells could also lead to urban flooding and agricultural damage.
The IMD has advised state authorities and residents to closely follow local weather advisories, especially in regions prone to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, to ensure preparedness and safety.