The International Labour Organization (ILO) has issued a stark warning regarding the future of global youth employment, projecting a significant increase in unemployment rates for individuals aged 15 to 24. According to its latest report, 'Global Employment Trends for Youth 2026,' the global youth unemployment rate is set to climb to 12.4% by 2025, affecting an estimated 67 million young people worldwide.
This rise follows a period where the global youth unemployment rate had fallen to its lowest level in over two decades in 2023. Beyond unemployment, the report highlights a concerning trend in the share of young people categorized as 'Not in Employment, Education, or Training' (NEET). This figure is anticipated to reach 20% in 2025, up from 19.7% in 2023, translating to an additional 9 million young people in NEET status since 2023, bringing the total to 257 million.
Key Drivers of Rising Youth Unemployment
The ILO attributes this worsening outlook to a combination of factors, including slowing global economic growth, diminished job creation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological change. The report notes that the increase in youth unemployment rates between 2023 and 2025 has been almost universal, affecting 8 of the 11 subregions examined, as well as high-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries. Northern Africa, Northern America, and parts of Europe saw the most significant increases.
A critical issue identified is that job creation is failing to keep pace with the growth in the youth population in many regions, straining economies' capacity to generate sufficient opportunities. The ratio of youth-to-adult unemployment rates has also increased in several areas, including Eastern Asia, Northern Africa, Northern America, and Southern Asia.
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence
A significant concern raised by the ILO is the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market, particularly for young people. The report suggests that AI-led disruptions have already 'hollowed out' several middle-skilled occupations, predominantly clerical and administrative roles, which could lead to even higher levels of youth unemployment. Categories most exposed to AI, and therefore most at risk of task or job replacement, include:
- Clerical support work
- Service and sales work
- Skilled agricultural, forestry, and fishery work
- Craft and related trades work
- Plant and machine operators and assemblers
The ILO estimates that 6.1% of jobs currently held by young people aged 15 to 29 fall into these high-exposure categories. The report warns that if just 10% of these exposed jobs were to disappear entirely, it would result in 5.6 million employed youth, largely in high-income countries, facing unemployment, job changes, or exiting the workforce. The outlook for youth in operational technical occupations, such as those in construction, manufacturing, and food preparation, also appears problematic.
Recommendations for a Human-Centric Approach
In response to these challenges, the ILO calls upon governments to adopt a more human-centric approach to AI. This includes investing in skills development, strengthening lifelong learning initiatives, and modernizing employment services to better prepare young people for the evolving job market. The report underscores the growing fear among young people that technology will replace their jobs and hinder their chances for stable employment and income.