Hero MotoCorp Ltd., India's prominent two-wheeler manufacturer, is poised to unveil its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year concluding March 31, 2026, today, May 5. Alongside the earnings report, the company confirmed it would declare a final dividend for the 2025-26 financial year, according to its exchange filing.
Analyst Expectations for Q4 Performance
Financial analysts have closely tracked Hero MotoCorp's performance, offering varied projections for its fourth-quarter results. Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities anticipates the company's revenue to reach ₹12,782.9 crore, marking a significant 28.6% year-over-year increase and a 3.7% sequential rise. They project an EBITDA of ₹1,829.8 crore, up 29.3% annually, with margins at 14.3%.
Nirmal Bang attributes this expected growth to a 24% volume increase and a 4% improvement in average selling prices (ASP), supported by resilient domestic demand, higher exports, and a favorable product mix. However, they foresee a sequential moderation in margins due to elevated raw material costs partially offsetting operational leverage and cost optimization efforts.
Diverse Revenue and Profit Forecasts
YES Securities provides a slightly different outlook, pegging Hero MotoCorp's revenue at ₹12,709.9 crore, a 27.9% year-over-year increase. Their EBITDA forecast stands at ₹1,789.5 crore, indicating a 16% decline compared to the previous year. Net profit, according to YES Securities, could reach ₹1,417.4 crore, up 31.1% annually but slightly down quarter-on-quarter.
Meanwhile, Axis Securities projects revenues of ₹12,462 crore, representing a 25.4% year-on-year growth. They expect EBITDA to hit ₹1,840 crore, a 30% annual increase, with margins improving by 53 basis points year-on-year to 14.8%. Axis Securities forecasts net profit at ₹1,438 crore, an impressive 33.1% year-on-year surge.
"Revenue is expected to increase, driven by a 24 per cent growth in volumes, supported by strong domestic demand, higher exports and an improved product mix. Ebitda margins are expected to increase by 53 bps YoY and 9 bps QoQ, supported by a richer product mix and ongoing cost control efforts, partly offset by higher raw material costs," Axis Securities stated.
Share Performance and Dividend History
Ahead of the results, Hero MotoCorp shares traded within a range of ₹5,020-₹5,080 on Tuesday, May 5, commanding a market capitalization close to ₹1 lakh crore. The stock is currently down over 21% from its 52-week high of ₹6,390, recorded in December 2025.
The company has a history of generous dividend payouts, having announced triple-digit dividends twice in the last 15 months. Over the past five occasions, starting February 2024, Hero MotoCorp has distributed a total of ₹390 per share in dividends. This includes ₹75 in February 2024, ₹40 in August 2024, ₹100 in February 2025, ₹65 in July 2025, and ₹110 in 2026.
Analyst Ratings and Target Prices
Brokerages have issued varied ratings and target prices for Hero MotoCorp. Nirmal Bang maintains a 'buy' rating but has adjusted its target price to ₹6,420. Motilal Oswal Financial Services also holds a 'buy' rating with a target price of ₹6,205. PL Capital recommends 'accumulate' with a target of ₹6,000. Conversely, 360 One Capital and Antique Stock Broking both have a 'hold' rating, with Antique setting a target price of ₹6,300.