Economist Sanjeev Sanyal, a prominent member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, has drawn attention to a significant and concerning trend: a sharp decline in annual birth rates across numerous major economies worldwide. Sanyal presented data indicating falls of over 80% from historical peak levels in some nations.
Steepest Declines Recorded
The data shared by Sanyal highlights alarming drops, particularly in East Asia, Europe, and North America. Ukraine shows the most dramatic reduction, with annual births plummeting by 83.4% from its peak. Japan follows closely at 75.2%, while South Korea has seen a 74.5% decline. China's annual births are also significantly down, at 73.4% below its peak.
Other major economies experiencing substantial reductions include:
- Italy: 65.3% decline
- Poland: 64.8% decline
- Russia: 61.1% decline
- Spain: 54.1% decline
- Germany: 49.3% decline
In contrast, the United States has experienced a comparatively smaller decline, with annual births currently 16.7% below its 2007 peak.
UN Confirms Global Fertility Crisis
Sanyal's observations are consistent with broader findings from the United Nations. The UN's World Population Prospects 2024 report indicates that more than half of all countries globally now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, which is necessary to maintain a stable population without migration. Furthermore, nearly one-fifth of countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, are facing 'ultra-low' fertility, with fewer than 1.4 births per woman.
India's Unique Demographic Shift
Sanyal has also previously discussed India's evolving demographic landscape. While India's population continues to grow due to increased longevity, the number of births actually peaked a quarter-century ago, reaching 29 million in 2001. Estimates for 2024 place annual births at approximately 23 million.
India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen below the globally accepted replacement level. Sanyal argues that India's specific circumstances—including a higher infant mortality rate (24.5 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023, compared to less than 5.5 in developed nations) and historical imbalances in the sex ratio at birth—mean that its actual required replacement rate is higher, closer to 2.25. This suggests that the gap between India's current TFR and its true replacement rate is more significant than initially apparent.
Future Population Projections
The UN projects that the population size has already peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, with their combined populations expected to decline by 14% over the next three decades. Another 48 countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam, are projected to reach their population peaks between 2025 and 2054. However, 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, are expected to see their populations continue to increase through 2054 and potentially peak much later in the century.