Retail chain giant Avenue Supermarts, operating as DMart, is poised to release its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (June 2026 quarter) on Saturday, July 11. Analysts largely anticipate a robust performance, projecting double-digit growth in both net profit and EBITDA, although some concerns persist regarding moderated demand trends and competitive pressures.
Brokerage Projections for DMart's Q1 Performance
Brokerage firm Axis Securities forecasts consolidated revenue for DMart to grow by 15% year-on-year, reaching Rs 18,814 crore, up from Rs 16,360 crore in the prior year. They expect EBITDA to climb 11.4% to Rs 1,448 crore and profit after tax (PAT) to increase by 9% to Rs 839 crore. However, Axis Securities also anticipates a slight dip in EBITDA margins by 25 basis points to 7.7%, primarily due to higher operating expenditures.
Antique Stock Broking offers similar optimistic projections, predicting a 15% rise in revenue to Rs 18,343.5 crore and an 8.1% year-on-year increase in profit to Rs 879 crore. Their EBITDA estimate stands at a 11.6% year-on-year growth, reaching Rs 1,466 crore.
Kotak Equities aligns with a 15.1% year-on-year consolidated revenue growth forecast for DMart in Q1 FY27. Kotak projects PAT to rise by 13.9% to Rs 880.2 crore and EBITDA to grow 14.5% to Rs 1,487.9 crore. They note that while gross margins might see a slight expansion, EBITDA margins are expected to remain flat at 7.9% due to the drag from large store additions in the previous quarter.
Key Monitorables and Demand Outlook
As investors await the official results, several key factors will be under close scrutiny. According to Axis Securities, the demand outlook across metros, Tier 2, and Tier 3 towns will be crucial. Commentary on business momentum, particularly in the face of rising quick-commerce competition, same-store sales growth (SSSG), and store productivity, will also be closely tracked.
Kotak Equities suggests that revenue growth may have been impacted by fierce competition from quick-commerce platforms and advance purchases made by customers in Q4 FY26. Antique Stock Broking highlighted that while profit margins are generally expected to be stable or slightly improve from operating leverage, pressure on EBITDA margins is anticipated due to inflation across operating expenses in the retail sector.
DMart's Q1 Business Update Signals Moderated Growth
Prior to the full earnings release, DMart had provided a business update for the June quarter, reporting a 15% rise in standalone revenue to Rs 18,343.49 crore, compared to Rs 15,932.12 crore in the corresponding period last year. During this quarter, Avenue Supermarts expanded its footprint by adding three new stores, bringing its total store count to 503.
Despite the revenue increase and continued store expansion, the company's business update indicated a moderation in growth. The pace of operational expansion and sales growth fell short of some analysts' expectations, raising concerns about near-term demand trends and the overall business momentum for the retail giant.